On Friday 13 June 2014, when the Netherlands defeated Spain, Jack van Gelder shouted twice: ‚Is it such a day?!
If Jack would look at bitcoin today, he would probably say the same thing. It’s really just a short time before bitcoin reaches its highest value ever. But what is this value anyway? And is it achievable today?
Misunderstandings about the all-time high
When we talk about bitcoin’s supreme course, what are we actually talking about? Firstly, most of the media are looking at the bitcoin rate in dollars. With the current exchange rate, bitcoin may be more likely to achieve an all-time high in euros, but that is generally not looked at as much.
In addition, it is often assumed that bitcoin has reached a peak of USD 20 000. That is close to the truth, but it is not entirely correct.
In mid-December 2017, bitcoin reached the highest point of all time. Analysts often maintain the price of cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Bitstamp is one of the oldest trading exchanges with a high trading volume. On this exchange bitcoin reached a peak of 19.666 dollar on 17 December, this price we keep in our analyses.
Parabolic run to peak
October was the starting shot for an impressive run of bitcoin. The course moved parabolic upwards, with ever greater movement. The four hour chart below shows how close bitcoin is to its absolute peak. With the current price of $19,150, bitcoin only needs to rise by 2.6%.
Support on average
The whole upward movement is also supported by another line. The same four-hour chart shows the moving average of the past 50 candles of four hours each, the 50-moving average. This line provides strong support in a bullish trend like this, after every dip on this line the price bounces back up.
Bitcoin gets a second chance today
You are now looking at the bitcoin hour chart, from 16 November until now. Since 16 November, the bitcoin rate has been in a rising channel, between the two rising black trend lines. Yesterday the price broke through the blue trend line with conviction.
For a moment it seemed that bitcoin would already reach an all-time high yesterday, but that turned out to be too early. The price tests the blue trend line and now continues its way up. If bitcoin keeps up this time, an all-time high is very well possible today.
What can we expect from bitcoin?
It is possible today! We describe two different scenarios: bullish (positive) and bearish (negative).
If bitcoin continues like this, the all-time high of USD 19,666 (EUR 16,504) comes in sight. This can be a fierce resistance, as this price is a major psychological barrier for many traders.
But is the price falling? Then bitcoin can find support at the bottom of the channel around $18,700 (€15,694). If this is not sustainable, the red line at $18,000 (€15,106) is a realistic scenario.